PolyWeather Pro

Production weather-intelligence stack for temperature settlement markets.

Official dashboard: polyweather.top 中文说明: README_ZH.md

Public docs center: /docs/intro on the main site (bilingual product documentation, including intraday analysis, calibrated probability, model stack, TAF, settlement sources, history, and extension).

Product Screenshots

Realtime Terminal

Telegram Runway Alerts

Star History

Product Status (2026-05-28)

• Subscription live: Pro Monthly 10 USDC.
• Points system live: earn via group chat, welcome bonus (+20), first-message-of-day bonus (+2), weekly participation rewards.
• /city and /deb now free (daily cap 10 each); points redeemable for payment discount (500 pts = 1 USDC, max 3 USDC).
• Weekly leaderboard rewards restructured: smaller point bonuses for winners (200/100/50), all active users receive participation rewards.
• Onchain checkout live: Polygon contract checkout (USDC / USDC.e) plus Ethereum mainnet USDC direct-transfer confirmation.
• Auto-reconciliation live: event listener + periodic confirm loop.
• Ops dashboard live: /ops for memberships, leaderboard, manual point grants, and payment incident triage.
• Lightweight observability live: /healthz, /api/system/status, /metrics.
• Realtime terminal live: visible city charts subscribe through /api/events?cities=...&since_revision=..., receive city_observation_patch.v1 SSE patches, and replay short gaps from Redis Stream in production or SQLite fallback in local/single-node mode.
• Chart refresh is observation-driven: live patches merge into the current chart without a loading overlay; only visible charts run a 60s no-patch fallback, and returning from a background browser tab triggers a foreground catch-up refresh.
• Temperature charts default to All Day, keep an optional Peak window derived from the DEB hourly path, and render all timestamps in the selected city's local time.
• The chart core has been split into focused logic/canvas/state modules; Recharts now receives explicit measured dimensions to avoid 0x0 rendering and disappearing curves.
• DEB hourly consensus (deb_hourly_consensus.v1) is now the preferred hourly forecast path for peak-window detection and chart overlays; DEB remains a forecast curve, never an observation source.
• Legacy Gaussian probability is rendered as horizontal probability bands and a mu reference line on the chart, rather than as a fake time-series curve.
• Settlement runway curves are visible by default for AMSC/AMOS cities; the configured settlement runway is highlighted and auxiliary runways are shown as secondary context.
• Hong Kong uses CoWIN station 6087 (Po Leung Kuk Choi Kai Yau School) as the 1-minute reference-station curve, with HKO 10-minute observations kept as the official meteorological layer.
• Telegram airport/runway pushes are bilingual by default and use settlement-endpoint runway temperatures for slope/current/summary copy.
• Runtime state, cache, and core offline training/backfill flows now use SQLite as the primary path; legacy JSON/JSONL files remain only for migration, export, and explicit fallback input.
• EMOS/CRPS calibration is wired and trainable, but production should stay on legacy or emos_shadow; emos_primary is only for candidates that pass local offline evaluation and manual rollout.
• Intraday analysis is now positioned as a professional meteorology read: headline, confidence, base/upside/downside paths, next observation point, evidence chain, failure modes, and confirmation rules.
• Intraday modal now blocks stale cached detail during refresh, so users do not briefly trade off old city/date data before full detail arrives.
• Terminal city cards now combine settlement observations, DEB hourly consensus, model cluster context, calibrated probability, and market-bucket mapping without blocking the chart on AI text generation.
• Terminal data uses page memory cache, browser localStorage, backend short-TTL cache, SSE patch replay, and foreground refresh so returning from another tab restores the latest visible chart state quickly.
• Market bucket matching now uses the full all_buckets surface and strict exact / range / or-higher / or-lower direction checks, reducing bad matches to unreasonable tail buckets.
• The card label “model-market difference” means model probability - market-implied probability; positive values indicate weather probability above market pricing, while negative values indicate the YES is already priced more fully.
• Calibrated model probability is now the primary probability panel. It shows the active production probability engine (legacy Gaussian or EMOS), while model consensus remains a secondary reference.
• Non-Hong Kong airport cities now ingest TAF and parse FM / TEMPO / BECMG / PROB30/40.
• Temperature chart now overlays TAF Timing markers near the expected peak window.
• Trade cue now combines upper-air structure, TAF, market crowding, and edge_percent.
• Browser extension now uses DEB for multi-day forecast and stays positioned as a lightweight lead-in to the main site.
• Official nearby-network layer now covers MGM (Turkey), CMA/NMC (Mainland China), JMA AMeDAS (Japan), AMOS (Korea, runway-level, Seoul/Busan), HKO (Hong Kong), and CWA (Taiwan).
• Tokyo now ingests Haneda JMA AMeDAS 10-minute temperature as the official enhancement layer.
• Frontend design system overhauled: unified CSS token system, eliminated !important abuse (134→49 in light theme), consolidated breakpoints (18→10), migrated hardcoded colors to CSS variables, added ARIA attributes and focus-visible keyboard navigation. See docs/frontend-ui-design-review.md for the full audit trail.

License & Commercial Boundary

This repository is licensed under GNU AGPL-3.0 only from 2026-03-30 onward.

• Public in repo: weather aggregation, core analysis, dashboard, bot baseline, and standard payment flow.
• Not included in this repository: private production data, internal operating thresholds, commercial risk rules, pricing strategy details, and growth tooling.
• Trademark, brand, domain, production databases, and hosted-service operations are not granted by the code license.

See: AGPL-3.0 & Commercial Boundary

Core Capabilities

• Aggregates observations and forecasts for 51 monitored cities.
• Uses DEB (Dynamic Error Balancing) to blend multi-model highs.
• Builds a DEB-weighted hourly consensus path for peak-window logic and chart display.
• Generates settlement-oriented calibrated probability buckets (mu + bucket distribution) via legacy Gaussian or EMOS/CRPS calibration.
• Adds city decision cards that combine live observations, expected-high centers, full market-bucket mapping, and model-market difference in one view.
• Reuses one analysis core across web dashboard and Telegram bot.
• Adds payment audit trails, replay tooling, and incident visibility in ops.
• Adds peak-window-oriented intraday analysis with meteorology headline, path buckets, evidence chain, invalidation rules, and confirmation rules.
• Adds airport-side TAF timing overlays and airport suppression/disruption interpretation for non-Hong Kong airport cities.
• Adds official nearby-network and runway-level enhancement layers for China, Japan, Korea (AMOS runway sensors for Seoul/Busan), Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Turkey without replacing airport settlement anchors.

Reference Architecture

flowchart LR
    U["Users (Web / Telegram)"] --> FE["Next.js Frontend (Vercel)"]
    U --> BOT["Telegram Bot (VPS)"]
    FE --> API["FastAPI /web/app.py"]
    BOT --> API

    API --> WX["Weather Collector"]
    WX --> METAR["Aviation Weather (METAR)"]
    WX --> TAF["Aviation Weather (TAF)"]
    WX --> MGM["MGM (Turkey station network)"]
    WX --> OM["Open-Meteo"]
    WX --> JMA["JMA AMeDAS (Japan)"]
    WX --> AMOS["AMOS runway sensors (Korea)"]
    WX --> HKO["HKO / CWA / NOAA / Official settlement sources"]

    API --> ANA["DEB + Hourly Consensus + Probability + Market Scan"]
    API --> SSE["SSE /api/events"]
    WX --> SSE
    SSE --> EVENT["Redis Stream / SQLite Event Log"]
    ANA --> PAY["Payment State (Multi-chain Intent + Event + Confirm Loop)"]
    ANA --> STATE["SQLite runtime state"]

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Monitored Cities (51)

• Europe / Middle East / Africa: Ankara, Istanbul, Moscow, London, Paris, Munich, Milan, Warsaw, Madrid, Tel Aviv, Amsterdam, Helsinki, Lagos, Cape Town, Jeddah
• APAC: Seoul, Busan, Hong Kong, Lau Fau Shan, Taipei, Shanghai, Beijing, Qingdao, Wuhan, Chengdu, Chongqing, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Singapore, Tokyo, Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Manila, Wellington
• Americas: Toronto, New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Aurora, Austin, Houston, Chicago, Dallas, Miami, Atlanta, Seattle, Mexico City, Buenos Aires, Sao Paulo, Panama City
• South Asia: Lucknow, Karachi

Quick Start

Backend + Bot (Docker)

docker compose up -d --build

Frontend (local)

cd frontend
npm ci
npm run dev

Recent Highlights

• Airport-linked contracts use the METAR / airport primary observing site as the settlement anchor. Wunderground pages are reference/history pages, not stations.
• Taipei and Shenzhen retain their explicitly configured station history pages for reconciliation, but the docs avoid describing Wunderground itself as a physical station.
• Hong Kong keeps HKO official readings in dashboard and history, without falling back to airport METAR lines.
• Intraday analysis now separates meteorology conclusion, evidence chain, invalidation rules, confirmation rules, calibrated probability, and market reference.
• TAF is used as an airport-side confirmation layer, not as the main temperature model.
• Calibrated probability uses legacy Gaussian (default) or EMOS/CRPS when evaluated; model vote counts remain an explanatory consensus line, not the final probability.
• Browser extension remains a lightweight monitoring + basic-bias product, while the site holds the full analysis experience.
• Realtime terminal charts use SSE patches plus replayable event storage; full HTTP detail remains the authoritative snapshot.
• Chart observations are shown in the city's local time, not the browser timezone.

Runtime Data (Recommended on VPS)

Use external runtime storage to avoid SQLite/git conflicts:

POLYWEATHER_RUNTIME_DATA_DIR=/var/lib/polyweather
POLYWEATHER_DB_PATH=/var/lib/polyweather/polyweather.db
POLYWEATHER_STATE_STORAGE_MODE=sqlite
POLYWEATHER_EVENT_STORE=redis
POLYWEATHER_REDIS_URL=redis://polyweather_redis:6379/0
POLYWEATHER_REDIS_STREAM_MAXLEN=50000
POLYWEATHER_REDIS_REQUIRED=true

For local development or a strict single-process fallback, keep POLYWEATHER_EVENT_STORE=sqlite.

EMOS Local Training

Do not run full EMOS retraining on a small VPS. The VPS should collect data and load approved calibration files; training should run on a local/dev machine using a copied production SQLite database:

scp root@38.54.27.70:/var/lib/polyweather/polyweather.db E:\web\PolyWeather\data\polyweather-prod.db
$env:POLYWEATHER_DB_PATH="E:\web\PolyWeather\data\polyweather-prod.db"
$env:POLYWEATHER_RUNTIME_DATA_DIR="E:\web\PolyWeather\artifacts\local_runtime"
python scripts\auto_retrain_probability_calibration.py --verbose --snapshot-limit 50000

Promote a generated default.json only when auto_retrain_report.json has ready_for_promotion=true, and prefer emos_shadow before enabling emos_primary.

Ops Verification

Health / system status / metrics

curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/healthz
curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/system/status
curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/metrics

Frontend cache headers

./scripts/validate_frontend_cache.sh "https://polyweather.top"

Payment auto-reconciliation logs

docker compose logs -f polyweather | egrep "payment event loop started|payment confirm loop started|payment auto-confirmed"

Payment runtime

curl http://127.0.0.1:8000/api/payments/runtime

Payment chains

Production payment routes are configured by the backend. Polygon remains the default checkout-contract chain, while Ethereum mainnet USDC can be enabled as a direct-transfer route so users who pay on their wallet default network are still confirmed by intent.chain_id.

Telegram Commands

Command	Purpose
/city <name>	City real-time analysis
/deb <name>	DEB historical reconciliation
/top	User leaderboard
/id	Show current chat ID
/diag	Startup diagnostics
/help	Help and usage

Documentation Index

• Chinese overview: README_ZH.md
• Chinese API guide: docs/API_ZH.md
• TAF signal guide (ZH): docs/TAF_SIGNAL_ZH.md
• Model stack & DEB (ZH): docs/MODEL_STACK_AND_DEB_ZH.md
• Commercialization: docs/COMMERCIALIZATION.md
• AGPL-3.0 policy: docs/OPEN_CORE_POLICY.md
• Supabase setup (ZH): docs/SUPABASE_SETUP_ZH.md
• Configuration & secrets (ZH): docs/CONFIGURATION_ZH.md
• Frontend deployment (ZH): docs/FRONTEND_DEPLOYMENT_ZH.md
• Tech debt (ZH): docs/TECH_DEBT_ZH.md
• Airport realtime sources: docs/AIRPORT_REALTIME_SOURCES.md
• Airport market monitor (ZH): docs/AIRPORT_MARKET_MONITOR_ZH.md
• Services overview (ZH): docs/SERVICES_ZH.md
• Payment verification: docs/payments/POLYGONSCAN_VERIFY.md
• Payment audit: docs/payments/PAYMENT_AUDIT_ZH.md
• Payment V2 upgrade: docs/payments/PAYMENT_UPGRADE_V2_ZH.md
• Ops admin guide: docs/OPS_ADMIN_ZH.md
• Monitoring guide (ZH): docs/MONITORING_ZH.md
• Deep research report: docs/deep-research-report.md
• Release process: RELEASE.md
• Changelog: CHANGELOG.md

Version

• Version: v1.8.1
• Last Updated: 2026-05-28