Add Codex historical pace with risk forecasting and backfill

[tristanmanchester]

Summary

• add opt-in historical tracking for Codex weekly pace using local JSONL history
• switch Codex weekly pace computation to a historical model when enough data is available, with linear fallback preserved
• add run-out probability support in UsagePace and include rounded risk text in pace detail when eligibility is met
• add dashboard-based historical backfill for missing weeks, including partial-day handling and idempotent synthesis
• improve model/data robustness with reset normalization, account-key scoping, coverage tolerance, and per-week conditioning consistency
• route menu/menu-bar/card pace rendering through store-provided pace values for consistent output

Key Implementation Details

• new history/model actor: HistoricalUsageHistoryStore
• new store integration path: UsageStore.weeklyPace(...) and UsageStore+HistoricalPace
• historical records now support source (live/backfill) and optional accountKey
• records are normalized and grouped with reset bucketing to avoid week fragmentation
• backfill remains local-only and bounded by retention rules

Tests

• added HistoricalUsagePaceTests and HistoricalUsagePaceTestSupport
• added/updated tests for:
  • reconstruction anchoring and monotonicity
  • reset jitter grouping
  • backfill timestamp guard, partial-day handling, idempotency, and incomplete-week fill
  • account-key filtering
  • smoothed probability and no-negative-ETA behavior
  • menu/menu-bar pace rendering consistency

Validation

• pnpm check
• swift test --filter HistoricalUsagePaceTests --filter UsagePaceTextTests --filter menuBarDisplayTextFormatsPercentAndPace --filter menuBarDisplayTextRequiresProvidedPaceForCodex
• ./Scripts/compile_and_run.sh

Note

• full swift test still hits an existing unrelated crash in this repo (NSConcreteTask terminationStatus in provider version detection / Gemini path)

[chatgpt-codex-connector]

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[chatgpt-codex-connector]

Gate Codex account-key lookup to Codex pace path

weeklyPace computes codexHistoricalAccountKey() unconditionally before the provider-specific branch, so Claude pace rendering also runs Codex account resolution. That path can fall through to codexAccountEmailForOpenAIDashboard() and UsageFetcher.loadAccountInfo() (which synchronously reads ~/.codex/auth.json) while this method is @MainActor, adding avoidable disk I/O to menu-bar updates for non-Codex providers. Move the account-key lookup inside the .codex historical branch so Claude pace stays purely in-memory.

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[EthanLipnik]

Curious how this compares to my PR #401 yours looks more developed though

[tristanmanchester]

Curious how this compares to my PR #401 yours looks more developed though

I completely missed your PR! Looks we have different approaches. I guess Peter will merge the best bits of both if he implements this feature.