Discussions

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  Calibration question keeps coming up: this is price data, not outcome data — here's exactly what you can and can't backtest with it

  manja316 asked Jun 27, 2026 in Q&A · Unanswered

  

  

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  Auditing the order-book layer: 88% was empty — how to use each layer correctly

  manja316 started Jun 26, 2026 in Show and tell

  

  

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  Is half this dataset just dead 50/50 markets? I checked all 19k — 99.5% actually move ≥20¢

  manja316 started Jun 25, 2026 in General

  

  

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  88 days, 17.84M snapshots in — which of these 4 backtests is actually worth running on prediction-market data?

  manja316 started Jun 24, 2026 in Ideas

  

  

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  Roadmap: should this become a quarterly auto-refresh tier? What would make it worth it to you?

  manja316 started Jun 22, 2026 in Ideas

  

  

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  Do Polymarket odds actually converge before resolution? 78% of markets are ≥95% decided at the last tick — but the snapshots get *less* confident. Here's the trap.

  manja316 started Jun 21, 2026 in Ideas

  

  

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  When Polymarket says 70%, does it happen 70% of the time? Calibration on 19.3M snapshots

  manja316 started Jun 16, 2026 in Show and tell

  

  

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  Do Polymarket probabilities lead crypto prices? A free cross-signal sample (BTC/ETH/SOL + funding + OI + PM sentiment) to test it

  manja316 started Jun 13, 2026 in Show and tell

  

  

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  How to measure favorite-longshot bias across all 18.4M snapshots (free, no download) — and where I think the real edge hides

  manja316 asked Jun 12, 2026 in Q&A · Unanswered

  

  

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  What's actually in the 18.1M snapshots — full coverage breakdown by category (and how to verify it free, no download)

  manja316 started Jun 11, 2026 in Show and tell

  

  

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  Reproduce the crash-bounce finding yourself (free 1-day sample, ~30 lines of pandas)

  manja316 started Jun 9, 2026 in Show and tell

  

  

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