diff --git a/data.json b/data.json index f2ef97c..644afc6 100644 --- a/data.json +++ b/data.json @@ -5,14 +5,14 @@ "agent": "Iskander", "agent_btc": "bc1qxj5jtv8jwm7zv2nczn2xfq9agjgj0sqpsxn43h", "agent_bns": "iskander-ai.btc", - "version": "3.0", + "version": "3.1", "bounty": "AIBTC Bounty #38 - Bitcoin Quantum Upgrade", - "total_assessed": 68, + "total_assessed": 69, "ranked": 50, - "notable_additions": 18, + "notable_additions": 19, "score_distribution": { "5_urgent": 7, - "4_proactive": 18, + "4_proactive": 19, "3_cautious": 8, "2_dismissive": 8, "1_no_known_view": 27 @@ -34,15 +34,15 @@ "Cointelegraph, Bitcoin Magazine, CryptoBriefing", "Podcasts (Stephan Livera, Blockspace)" ], - "critical_context": "Google Quantum AI (March 31, 2026): <500k physical qubits break ECDSA-256 in ~9 min — inside Bitcoin's block time. 20x easier than 2019 estimates. ~37% of BTC supply in quantum-vulnerable P2PK addresses. Zero public upgrade roadmap. Zero top developer response within 48 hours of the Google paper. BIP-360 merged but no activation timeline. Other major protocols (Ethereum, Solana) have published quantum migration plans. Bitcoin has not.", - "key_insight": "Bitcoin is sleepwalking into a quantum crisis. Google's March 31, 2026 paper showed <500k physical qubits could break ECDSA-256 in ~9 minutes — a 20x reduction from prior estimates, inside a single block time. ~37% of Bitcoin's supply sits in addresses with exposed public keys. Yet 62% of the top 50 most influential protocol developers have no public quantum position. The dismissive camp outnumbers the urgent camp nearly 3-to-1. No current Core maintainer scores above a 2. Quiet building by the score-4 cluster (Wuille, Nick, Ruffing, Shikhelman) is necessary but insufficient — Bitcoin soft forks require public debate, community consensus, and political will. None of that is happening. BIP-360 exists but has no activation timeline. Bitcoin is worst-in-class among major protocols on quantum preparedness.", + "critical_context": "Google Quantum AI (March 31, 2026): <500k physical qubits break ECDSA-256 in ~9 min \u2014 inside Bitcoin's block time. 20x easier than 2019 estimates. ~37% of BTC supply in quantum-vulnerable P2PK addresses. Zero public upgrade roadmap. Zero top developer response within 48 hours of the Google paper. BIP-360 merged but no activation timeline. Other major protocols (Ethereum, Solana) have published quantum migration plans. Bitcoin has not.", + "key_insight": "Bitcoin is sleepwalking into a quantum crisis. Google's March 31, 2026 paper showed <500k physical qubits could break ECDSA-256 in ~9 minutes \u2014 a 20x reduction from prior estimates, inside a single block time. ~37% of Bitcoin's supply sits in addresses with exposed public keys. Yet 62% of the top 50 most influential protocol developers have no public quantum position. The dismissive camp outnumbers the urgent camp nearly 3-to-1. No current Core maintainer scores above a 2. Quiet building by the score-4 cluster (Wuille, Nick, Ruffing, Shikhelman) is necessary but insufficient \u2014 Bitcoin soft forks require public debate, community consensus, and political will. None of that is happening. BIP-360 exists but has no activation timeline. Bitcoin is worst-in-class among major protocols on quantum preparedness.", "x_source_note": "X/Twitter post dates confirmed via snowflake ID decoding. Content verified manually by agent; automated verification blocked by platform access restrictions.", "quantum_readiness_index": 0.5714, "update_history": [ { "date": "2026-04-04", "developer": "Neha Narula", - "change": "score 1→3 (MIT DCI quantum research posture)", + "change": "score 1\u21923 (MIT DCI quantum research posture)", "pr": null, "contributor": "Iskander-Agent" }, @@ -56,14 +56,14 @@ { "date": "2026-04-04", "developer": "Mark Friedenbach", - "change": "score 1→3 — quantum risk position documented", + "change": "score 1\u21923 \u2014 quantum risk position documented", "pr": "#1", "contributor": "@tearful-saw" }, { "date": "2026-04-04", "developer": "Karl-Johan Alm", - "change": "score 1→3 — quantum risk position documented", + "change": "score 1\u21923 \u2014 quantum risk position documented", "pr": "#1", "contributor": "@tearful-saw" }, @@ -77,41 +77,41 @@ { "date": "2026-04-05", "developer": "0xB10C", - "change": "score remains 1 — documented null result April 2026", + "change": "score remains 1 \u2014 documented null result April 2026", "pr": "#3", "contributor": "@SlyHarp" }, { "date": "2026-04-05", "developer": "Matt Corallo", - "change": "score 3→4 — two-step PQ upgrade path advocacy", + "change": "score 3\u21924 \u2014 two-step PQ upgrade path advocacy", "pr": "#5", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-06", "developer": "Alex Gladstein", - "change": "score 1→3 — HRF quantum threat report + PQ research funding", + "change": "score 1\u21923 \u2014 HRF quantum threat report + PQ research funding", "pr": "#6", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-08", "developer": "John Martinis", - "change": "added as notable addition — score 5 (Nobel 2025)", + "change": "added as notable addition \u2014 score 5 (Nobel 2025)", "pr": "#9", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-09", "developer": "Olaoluwa Osuntokun", - "change": "pq_work_volume 1→2 — PQ HD wallet rescue prototype", + "change": "pq_work_volume 1\u21922 \u2014 PQ HD wallet rescue prototype", "pr": "#11", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-09", - "developer": "Niklas Gögge", + "developer": "Niklas G\u00f6gge", "change": "entry update", "pr": "#15", "contributor": "@Dannye013" @@ -119,14 +119,14 @@ { "date": "2026-04-10", "developer": "Adam Back", - "change": "score 2→3", + "change": "score 2\u21923", "pr": "#16", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-10", "developer": "Avihu Levy", - "change": "added as notable — StarkWare QSB", + "change": "added as notable \u2014 StarkWare QSB", "pr": "#16", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, @@ -140,77 +140,77 @@ { "date": "2026-04-19", "developer": "Adam Gibson (waxwing / AdamISZ)", - "change": "new entry — score 2 (aware, dismissive of urgency-based action); JoinMarket creator; bitcoin-dev Algorithm Agility thread Apr 2026", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 2 (aware, dismissive of urgency-based action); JoinMarket creator; bitcoin-dev Algorithm Agility thread Apr 2026", "pr": null, "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-22", "developer": "Echelon Labs Research", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 2 — BIP Draft Witness v3 ML-DSA-65 + reference impl", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 2 \u2014 BIP Draft Witness v3 ML-DSA-65 + reference impl", "pr": "#23", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-27", "developer": "Giancarlo Lelli", - "change": "new entry — score 5 (Urgent), pq_work_volume 2 — Q-Day Prize winner, 15-bit ECC break on IBM quantum hardware", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 5 (Urgent), pq_work_volume 2 \u2014 Q-Day Prize winner, 15-bit ECC break on IBM quantum hardware", "pr": "#24", "contributor": "Iskander-Agent" }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "developer": "Craig Gidney (Google Quantum AI)", - "change": "new entry — score 5 (Urgent), pq_work_volume 3; foundational secp256k1 ECDLP paper (arXiv 2603.28846)", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 5 (Urgent), pq_work_volume 3; foundational secp256k1 ECDLP paper (arXiv 2603.28846)", "pr": "#25", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "developer": "Oriole (IACR ePrint 2026/793)", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; lattice threshold-sig scheme for BIP-360 P2QRH multi-sig", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; lattice threshold-sig scheme for BIP-360 P2QRH multi-sig", "pr": "#26", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-28", "developer": "Chevignard, Fouque, Schrottenloher (INRIA)", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; EUROCRYPT 2026 44% qubit reduction for ECDLP", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; EUROCRYPT 2026 44% qubit reduction for ECDLP", "pr": "#27", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-04-28", - "developer": "Delfosse et al. (IonQ — Walking Cat)", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; trapped-ion FT blueprint, second hardware path", + "developer": "Delfosse et al. (IonQ \u2014 Walking Cat)", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; trapped-ion FT blueprint, second hardware path", "pr": "#28", "contributor": "@lekanbams" }, { "date": "2026-05-01", "developer": "Postquant Labs / Quip Network", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 2; no-fork WOTS+ Bitcoin wallet/SDK launched on Arch Network", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 2; no-fork WOTS+ Bitcoin wallet/SDK launched on Arch Network", "pr": "#33", "contributor": "@Nuval999" }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "developer": "Spyros Tserkis et al.", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; constant-depth Toffoli gates via teleportation (arXiv 2604.25861)", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; constant-depth Toffoli gates via teleportation (arXiv 2604.25861)", "pr": "#31", "contributor": "@1feems" }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "developer": "Debora Ramacciotti et al.", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; Grover-Rudolph gate optimization ~22% CNOT reduction (arXiv 2604.24973)", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; Grover-Rudolph gate optimization ~22% CNOT reduction (arXiv 2604.24973)", "pr": "#31", "contributor": "@1feems" }, { "date": "2026-05-05", "developer": "Xiang Fang et al.", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; LightStim DEM automation for QEC (arXiv 2604.21472)", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; LightStim DEM automation for QEC (arXiv 2604.21472)", "pr": "#31", "contributor": "@1feems" }, @@ -224,28 +224,28 @@ { "date": "2026-05-11", "developer": "Mark Friedenbach", - "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 — May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev/Delving/BIPs found no new statements; score 3 and existing source confirmed", + "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 \u2014 May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev/Delving/BIPs found no new statements; score 3 and existing source confirmed", "pr": "#37", "contributor": "@arc0btc" }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "developer": "Karl-Johan Alm", - "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 — May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev/Delving/BIPs found no new statements; score 3 confirmed", + "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 \u2014 May 2026 sweep of bitcoin-dev/Delving/BIPs found no new statements; score 3 confirmed", "pr": "#37", "contributor": "@arc0btc" }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "developer": "0xB10C", - "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 — May 2026 sweep confirmed null result; score 1 confirmed, focus on Bitcoin Core/P2P/mining analytics", + "change": "add last_verified 2026-05-11 \u2014 May 2026 sweep confirmed null result; score 1 confirmed, focus on Bitcoin Core/P2P/mining analytics", "pr": "#37", "contributor": "@arc0btc" }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "developer": "Jonas Schnelli", - "change": "new notable entry — score 4; May 2026 bitcoin-dev post endorses classical-then-PQ BIP-324 upgrade using ML-KEM inside v2 transport", + "change": "new notable entry \u2014 score 4; May 2026 bitcoin-dev post endorses classical-then-PQ BIP-324 upgrade using ML-KEM inside v2 transport", "pr": "#36", "contributor": "@coreymull" }, @@ -259,34 +259,41 @@ { "date": "2026-05-11", "developer": "Han Luo et al.", - "change": "new entry — score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; space-efficient ECDLP circuit lowers 256-bit prime-field estimate to 1,333 logical qubits (arXiv 2604.02311) — rank 68", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; space-efficient ECDLP circuit lowers 256-bit prime-field estimate to 1,333 logical qubits (arXiv 2604.02311) \u2014 rank 68", "pr": "#39", "contributor": "@NoeFabris" }, { "date": "2026-05-11", "developer": "Olaoluwa Osuntokun", - "change": "score 3→4 — May 2026 bitcoin-dev post proposes immediate post-quantum BIP-324 transport upgrade path using ML-KEM/hybrid KEM designs", + "change": "score 3\u21924 \u2014 May 2026 bitcoin-dev post proposes immediate post-quantum BIP-324 transport upgrade path using ML-KEM/hybrid KEM designs", "pr": "#39", "contributor": "@NoeFabris" }, + { + "date": "2026-05-13", + "developer": "Cain, Xu, Bluvstein et al.", + "change": "new entry \u2014 score 4 (Proactive), pq_work_volume 1; neutral-atom Shor implementation path for P-256 ECDLP with ~26k physical qubits (arXiv 2603.28627) \u2014 rank 69", + "pr": "#50", + "contributor": "@1feems" + }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "developer": "Ava Chow", - "change": "last_verified updated to 2026-05-14 — May 14 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-14 window. Score unchanged at 1.", + "change": "last_verified updated to 2026-05-14 \u2014 May 14 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-14 window. Score unchanged at 1.", "pr": null, "contributor": "@gregoryford963-sys" }, { "date": "2026-05-14", "developer": "Jon Atack", - "change": "last_verified updated to 2026-05-14 — May 14 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-14 window. Score unchanged at 1.", + "change": "last_verified updated to 2026-05-14 \u2014 May 14 null-result sweep: searched bitcoin-dev ML (gnusha.org), Delving Bitcoin, GitHub BIP-360 PRs #2102/#2103. No quantum/PQC statements found in 2026-05-10 to 2026-05-14 window. Score unchanged at 1.", "pr": null, "contributor": "@gregoryford963-sys" } ], "last_updated": "2026-05-14", - "next_review": "weekly — Sundays (DRI synthesis)" + "next_review": "weekly \u2014 Sundays (DRI synthesis)" }, "developers": [ { @@ -833,7 +840,7 @@ }, { "rank": 34, - "name": "Niklas Gögge", + "name": "Niklas G\u00f6gge", "affiliation": "Brink", "role": "Core Developer, Security", "quantum_urgency_score": 1, @@ -931,7 +938,7 @@ "quantum_urgency_score": 4, "pq_work_volume": 4, "notable": false, - "summary": "Co-authored Chaincode Labs' 2025 report “Bitcoin and Quantum Computing: Current Status and Future Directions,” estimating that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer could put roughly 4–10 million BTC (about 20–50% of supply) at risk by deriving private keys from exposed public keys, and proposing dual-track ~2-year contingency and ~7-year comprehensive migration paths to post-quantum cryptography.", + "summary": "Co-authored Chaincode Labs' 2025 report \u201cBitcoin and Quantum Computing: Current Status and Future Directions,\u201d estimating that a cryptographically relevant quantum computer could put roughly 4\u201310 million BTC (about 20\u201350% of supply) at risk by deriving private keys from exposed public keys, and proposing dual-track ~2-year contingency and ~7-year comprehensive migration paths to post-quantum cryptography.", "key_source": "https://chaincode.com/bitcoin-post-quantum.pdf", "sources": [ "https://chaincode.com/bitcoin-post-quantum.pdf", @@ -978,7 +985,7 @@ "quantum_urgency_score": 4, "pq_work_volume": 2, "notable": true, - "summary": "Published compound probability framework April 3, 2026: P(CRQC by 2030) × P(Bitcoin fails to upgrade) ≥5% existential risk. Calls for prioritizing PQ design now. First non-BIP-360-author, non-Blockstream researcher to cross into the proactive camp.", + "summary": "Published compound probability framework April 3, 2026: P(CRQC by 2030) \u00d7 P(Bitcoin fails to upgrade) \u22655% existential risk. Calls for prioritizing PQ design now. First non-BIP-360-author, non-Blockstream researcher to cross into the proactive camp.", "key_source": "https://nehanarula.org/2026/04/03/bitcoin-and-quantum-computing.html", "sources": [ "https://nehanarula.org/2026/04/03/bitcoin-and-quantum-computing.html" @@ -1170,7 +1177,7 @@ "quantum_urgency_score": 2, "pq_work_volume": 1, "notable": false, - "summary": "Opposes mandatory coin-freezing on principled grounds. In the Algorithm Agility bitcoin-dev thread (Apr 2026): ‘We won’t know for sure when the world shifts from outputs are safe to claimable by anyone.’ Argues Bitcoin’s value derives from immutable property rights — ‘if you locked a utxo with a certain ruleset in the past, that ruleset will still be active.’ Acknowledges quantum uncertainty but maintains principles outweigh safety-based arguments for coin freezing. Advocates opt-in PQ solutions (P2MR) only. Creator of JoinMarket, Bitcoin privacy researcher.", + "summary": "Opposes mandatory coin-freezing on principled grounds. In the Algorithm Agility bitcoin-dev thread (Apr 2026): \u2018We won\u2019t know for sure when the world shifts from outputs are safe to claimable by anyone.\u2019 Argues Bitcoin\u2019s value derives from immutable property rights \u2014 \u2018if you locked a utxo with a certain ruleset in the past, that ruleset will still be active.\u2019 Acknowledges quantum uncertainty but maintains principles outweigh safety-based arguments for coin freezing. Advocates opt-in PQ solutions (P2MR) only. Creator of JoinMarket, Bitcoin privacy researcher.", "key_source": "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/7jkVS1K9WLo/m/wY6tgodKAQAJ", "sources": [ "https://groups.google.com/g/bitcoindev/c/7jkVS1K9WLo/m/wY6tgodKAQAJ", @@ -1204,7 +1211,7 @@ "quantum_urgency_score": 5, "pq_work_volume": 2, "notable": true, - "summary": "Won Project Eleven Q-Day Prize (1 BTC) on Apr 24, 2026 for breaking a 15-bit elliptic curve key on cloud-accessible IBM quantum hardware — 512× improvement over the prior 6-bit record (Tippeconnic, Sep 2025). Used a Shor's algorithm variant after a year of independent work. The largest public demonstration of the ECC attack class that threatens Bitcoin's secp256k1. While 256-bit keys remain out of reach, the scaling trajectory is the signal: specialized hardware requirements are collapsing faster than 2024 projections.", + "summary": "Won Project Eleven Q-Day Prize (1 BTC) on Apr 24, 2026 for breaking a 15-bit elliptic curve key on cloud-accessible IBM quantum hardware \u2014 512\u00d7 improvement over the prior 6-bit record (Tippeconnic, Sep 2025). Used a Shor's algorithm variant after a year of independent work. The largest public demonstration of the ECC attack class that threatens Bitcoin's secp256k1. While 256-bit keys remain out of reach, the scaling trajectory is the signal: specialized hardware requirements are collapsing faster than 2024 projections.", "key_source": "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/04/24/project-eleven-q-day-prize-quantum-ecc-attack/", "sources": [ "https://thequantuminsider.com/2026/04/24/project-eleven-q-day-prize-quantum-ecc-attack/", @@ -1222,7 +1229,7 @@ "quantum_urgency_score": 5, "pq_work_volume": 3, "notable": true, - "summary": "Lead/co-author of arXiv 2603.28846 (Mar 2026, Babbush, Gidney et al.), the foundational Google Quantum AI paper that compressed the secp256k1 ECDLP qubit threshold to under 500,000 physical qubits — projecting a ~9 minute crack window for any pubkey-revealed BTC. v2 (Apr 15) further distinguished fast-clock (superconducting/photonic) from slow-clock (ion-trap/neutral-atom) architectures, quantifying on-spend mempool attacks within mempool-confirmation latency. Gidney's separately published 10% CRQC-by-2030 probability estimate is the explicit anchor cited in Neha Narula's score-update post; Babbush threshold figures (1,200 logical qubits / under 90M Toffoli gates) are the de facto reference standard now adopted across the bitcoin-dev PQ thread, BIP-360/BIP-361 drafts, and Bitcoin Optech newsletters.", + "summary": "Lead/co-author of arXiv 2603.28846 (Mar 2026, Babbush, Gidney et al.), the foundational Google Quantum AI paper that compressed the secp256k1 ECDLP qubit threshold to under 500,000 physical qubits \u2014 projecting a ~9 minute crack window for any pubkey-revealed BTC. v2 (Apr 15) further distinguished fast-clock (superconducting/photonic) from slow-clock (ion-trap/neutral-atom) architectures, quantifying on-spend mempool attacks within mempool-confirmation latency. Gidney's separately published 10% CRQC-by-2030 probability estimate is the explicit anchor cited in Neha Narula's score-update post; Babbush threshold figures (1,200 logical qubits / under 90M Toffoli gates) are the de facto reference standard now adopted across the bitcoin-dev PQ thread, BIP-360/BIP-361 drafts, and Bitcoin Optech newsletters.", "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28846", "sources": [ "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28846", @@ -1235,12 +1242,12 @@ { "rank": 60, "name": "Oriole (IACR ePrint 2026/793)", - "affiliation": "Academic — lattice cryptography research", + "affiliation": "Academic \u2014 lattice cryptography research", "role": "Post-quantum threshold signature scheme", "quantum_urgency_score": 4, "pq_work_volume": 1, "notable": true, - "summary": "IACR ePrint 2026/793 'Oriole — Adaptively Secure Partially Non-Interactive Threshold Signatures from Lattices' proposes a lattice-based threshold signature scheme with adaptive security under standard LWE assumptions, skipping FROST's trusted-setup overhead. Partial non-interactivity (NI pre-signing, interactive finalize) maps directly to Bitcoin multi-sig flows where co-signers go online at different times. Positioned as a deployment-ready candidate for BIP-360 P2QRH multi-sig design space, which currently lacks a lattice-tier threshold scheme. Tradeoff: ~1.5x signature size vs Falcon, making witness-bloat the primary deployment concern.", + "summary": "IACR ePrint 2026/793 'Oriole \u2014 Adaptively Secure Partially Non-Interactive Threshold Signatures from Lattices' proposes a lattice-based threshold signature scheme with adaptive security under standard LWE assumptions, skipping FROST's trusted-setup overhead. Partial non-interactivity (NI pre-signing, interactive finalize) maps directly to Bitcoin multi-sig flows where co-signers go online at different times. Positioned as a deployment-ready candidate for BIP-360 P2QRH multi-sig design space, which currently lacks a lattice-tier threshold scheme. Tradeoff: ~1.5x signature size vs Falcon, making witness-bloat the primary deployment concern.", "key_source": "https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/793", "sources": [ "https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/793", @@ -1252,12 +1259,12 @@ { "rank": 61, "name": "Chevignard, Fouque, Schrottenloher (INRIA)", - "affiliation": "INRIA — quantum cryptanalysis research", + "affiliation": "INRIA \u2014 quantum cryptanalysis research", "role": "Academic quantum cryptanalysts", "quantum_urgency_score": 4, "pq_work_volume": 1, "notable": true, - "summary": "EUROCRYPT 2026 paper (IACR ePrint 2026/280) 'Reducing the Number of Qubits in Quantum ECDLP' presents prime-curve ECDLP quantum circuits achieving 3.12n + o(n) qubits versus 5n + o(n) prior (Häner 2020). For P-256: 1,193 logical qubits — a 44% reduction. Techniques: Legendre symbol compression (avoids modular inversion), residue number system lifting to integers, spooky pebbling for space-efficient uncomputation. P-256 now breaks with 42% fewer logical qubits than RSA-3072. Bitcoin's secp256k1 shares the same 256-bit curve structure, inheriting the compression directly — this measurably tightens the Babbush et al. <500K physical-qubit ECDLP-256 budget.", + "summary": "EUROCRYPT 2026 paper (IACR ePrint 2026/280) 'Reducing the Number of Qubits in Quantum ECDLP' presents prime-curve ECDLP quantum circuits achieving 3.12n + o(n) qubits versus 5n + o(n) prior (H\u00e4ner 2020). For P-256: 1,193 logical qubits \u2014 a 44% reduction. Techniques: Legendre symbol compression (avoids modular inversion), residue number system lifting to integers, spooky pebbling for space-efficient uncomputation. P-256 now breaks with 42% fewer logical qubits than RSA-3072. Bitcoin's secp256k1 shares the same 256-bit curve structure, inheriting the compression directly \u2014 this measurably tightens the Babbush et al. <500K physical-qubit ECDLP-256 budget.", "key_source": "https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/280", "sources": [ "https://eprint.iacr.org/2026/280", @@ -1267,13 +1274,13 @@ }, { "rank": 62, - "name": "Delfosse et al. (IonQ — Walking Cat)", - "affiliation": "IonQ — trapped-ion fault-tolerant computing research", + "name": "Delfosse et al. (IonQ \u2014 Walking Cat)", + "affiliation": "IonQ \u2014 trapped-ion fault-tolerant computing research", "role": "Quantum hardware architects", "quantum_urgency_score": 4, "pq_work_volume": 1, "notable": true, - "summary": "arXiv 2604.19481 (Delfosse et al., 21 Apr 2026) — 'Walking Cat Architecture': a full-stack trapped-ion fault-tolerant blueprint with compiler, QEC protocols, micro-architecture, fast decoder, and end-to-end simulations. The [[102,22,9]] LDPC code packs 22 logical qubits into 102 physical qubits — a 2,514-physical system yields 110 logical qubits running at ~1M T-gates per day. Distinct hardware path from neutral-atom (QuEra) and IBM heavy-hex; provides a second viable trajectory toward the Babbush et al. <500K-physical-qubit / <1,200-logical-qubit secp256k1 ECDLP break threshold. Delfosse (ex-Microsoft, now IonQ) leads a complete arch+code+decoder design targeting hundreds of logical qubits running millions of logical gates on near-term ion traps.", + "summary": "arXiv 2604.19481 (Delfosse et al., 21 Apr 2026) \u2014 'Walking Cat Architecture': a full-stack trapped-ion fault-tolerant blueprint with compiler, QEC protocols, micro-architecture, fast decoder, and end-to-end simulations. The [[102,22,9]] LDPC code packs 22 logical qubits into 102 physical qubits \u2014 a 2,514-physical system yields 110 logical qubits running at ~1M T-gates per day. Distinct hardware path from neutral-atom (QuEra) and IBM heavy-hex; provides a second viable trajectory toward the Babbush et al. <500K-physical-qubit / <1,200-logical-qubit secp256k1 ECDLP break threshold. Delfosse (ex-Microsoft, now IonQ) leads a complete arch+code+decoder design targeting hundreds of logical qubits running millions of logical gates on near-term ion traps.", "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19481", "sources": [ "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.19481", @@ -1285,7 +1292,7 @@ { "rank": 63, "name": "Postquant Labs / Quip Network", - "affiliation": "Postquant Labs — Arch Network Bitcoin smart-contract layer", + "affiliation": "Postquant Labs \u2014 Arch Network Bitcoin smart-contract layer", "role": "Post-quantum Bitcoin wallet and SDK team", "quantum_urgency_score": 4, "pq_work_volume": 2, @@ -1337,7 +1344,7 @@ "quantum_urgency_score": 4, "pq_work_volume": 1, "notable": true, - "summary": "Authors of arXiv 2604.21472 introducing LightStim, a framework that automates Detector Error Model (DEM) construction for quantum error correction protocols. Enables faster evaluation and prototyping of fault-tolerant quantum systems by removing manual annotation bottlenecks — accelerating the path to practical QEC at scale.", + "summary": "Authors of arXiv 2604.21472 introducing LightStim, a framework that automates Detector Error Model (DEM) construction for quantum error correction protocols. Enables faster evaluation and prototyping of fault-tolerant quantum systems by removing manual annotation bottlenecks \u2014 accelerating the path to practical QEC at scale.", "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21472", "sources": [ "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.21472" @@ -1374,6 +1381,21 @@ "https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.02311" ], "last_verified": "2026-05-11" + }, + { + "rank": 69, + "name": "Cain, Xu, Bluvstein et al. (Caltech/Harvard)", + "affiliation": "Academic neutral-atom quantum computing research", + "role": "Quantum hardware and Shor algorithm researchers", + "quantum_urgency_score": 4, + "pq_work_volume": 1, + "notable": true, + "summary": "Authors of arXiv 2603.28627 'Shor's algorithm is possible with as few as 10,000 reconfigurable atomic qubits' (Mar 2026). Demonstrates that a ~26,000-physical-qubit neutral-atom system could break P-256 elliptic curve cryptography within days. Bitcoin's secp256k1 shares the same 256-bit field size, inheriting the result directly. Establishes a third viable hardware trajectory toward cryptographically relevant ECDLP attacks, alongside superconducting and trapped-ion approaches.", + "key_source": "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627", + "sources": [ + "https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627" + ], + "last_verified": "2026-05-13" } ] }