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    <article class="post h-entry post-text"><header><h1 class="post-title p-name"><a href="posts/more-march-madness-monte-carlo-style.html" class="u-url">More March Madness Monte Carlo style</a></h1>
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            <p class="dateline"><a href="posts/more-march-madness-monte-carlo-style.html" rel="bookmark"><time class="post-date published dt-published" datetime="2015-03-19T15:43:00+00:00" title="2015-03-19 15:43">2015-03-19 15:43</time></a></p>
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<p>You can download this post as a Juypter notebook <a href="posts/more-march-madness-monte-carlo-style.ipynb">here</a></p>

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<h2 id="MMMC-the-2015-update">MMMC the 2015 update<a class="anchor-link" href="posts/more-march-madness-monte-carlo-style.html#MMMC-the-2015-update">¶</a>
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<p>See the <a href="http://www.mglerner.com/blog/?p=16">original blog post</a> for details and history. Here's the short story: in my Statistical and Thermal Physics class, we want to use Monte Carlo simulations to generate brackets for March Madness. There are at least two obvious ways to go about this:</p>
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<p>Make some function that tells us the chance that team A beats team B, then flip coins for each matchup. That gets you one bracket. Repeat 100,000 times, collect statistics. This is the way Nate Silver's 538.com handles simulations for <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/march-madness-predictions-2015/#mens">basketball</a>, <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.com/interactives/senate-forecast/">elections</a>, etc, and I should probably implement it (note to self/motivated students: it's as easy as just generating 100,000 new brackets at a given temperature).</p>
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<p>Generate one bracket, then do a Monte-Carlo walk through bracket space. This is tougher. We have to figure out how to make a move in bracket space, which is part of the fun of Monte Carlo simulations in general. To see how this is done, check out the code in <code>Bracket.swap</code> and <code>Brackets.simulate</code>.</p>
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<p>As you can tell, we take option 2 above. I've made things a bit nicer from a user standpoint this year; here's a walkthrough. First, load up our standard IPython setup</p>
<p class="more"><a href="posts/more-march-madness-monte-carlo-style.html">Read more…</a></p>
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