The scoreboard. Frozen predictions of the founding framework, dated, against scheduled experimental data. Charter rule 2 applies: no prediction is revised after the fact; verdicts are recorded favorable or not.
| Prediction (frozen) | Status vs latest global fit (NuFIT 6.1, late 2025) | Decided by | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|
| delta_CP = 197 degrees, operational window 182 to 212 | Within about 1 sigma of the best fit (207 to 212 degrees depending on dataset) | T2K + NOvA combined analyses, Hyper-Kamiokande, DUNE | late 2020s to mid 2030s |
| theta23 in the upper octant (49.25 degrees) | In tension: best fit currently 43.3 degrees (lower octant); the octant is unresolved and has flipped between consecutive fits | DUNE, Hyper-Kamiokande, atmospheric data | early to mid 2030s |
| Exactly three fermion generations | Standing; any fourth-generation discovery falsifies | Collider and precision electroweak data | standing |
Dated entries, appended as data arrives. Never edited, only appended.
- 2025 (NuFIT 6.0). delta_CP best fit moved to 177 degrees; the frozen 197-degree prediction sat outside the 1-sigma range. Recorded as unfavorable at the time.
- Late 2025 (NuFIT 6.1). delta_CP best fit moved to 207 to 212 degrees; the unchanged 197-degree prediction returned to within about 1 sigma. The prediction did not move between these two entries; the data did. In the same release, the theta23 best fit flipped to the lower octant, putting the upper-octant bet in tension. Both verdicts recorded.
- Global neutrino fits (NuFIT) have historically been released every one to two years; each release appends a verdict entry here.
- Hyper-Kamiokande and DUNE are the named deciders for both neutrino bets; first decisive oscillation datasets are expected from the late 2020s (Hyper-K) and the early 2030s (DUNE).
K₇ (formerly GIFT) is the founding framework of the Arithmon program.